On the Horizon
December 2025
November Recap
November was a great month. I took a trip to Houston Texas and met with a number of interesting companies and people during my time in town. The trip was all around a successful one, and I cannot say enough about how good the food in Houston is (particularly for a sea food lover). Outside of stuffing my face the trip provided me with a stark reminder me of just how far markets have strayed from business analysis and valuation.
This fact hit me over the head when we attended the Navigator Gas Investor Day. It was a two-day event with presentations, tours and of course a few meals. While the crowd at the event was stimulating and interesting to converse with, I could not help but notice just how small it was in contrast to the 5,000 that showed up to the Robinhood event in Las Vegas.
That experience gave our team a lot of confidence that we are thinking about things the right way, that the passive flow of funds creates ample opportunities in the increasingly short term oriented, valuation agnostic market that we find ourselves in.
In addition, another revelation that I had over the Thanksgiving festivities is the importance of taking a seemingly axiomatic or seemingly small idea and applying it with extreme seriousness. I am finishing a book on the Steel industry in Britain from the Bessmer/Siemens days through the mid 1900s and the way the industry behaved then, and what we are experiencing today could not be more similar. While this book details the realities of steel, the “obvious” fact that we continue to rigorously apply is twofold - 1) Economics Drive Industrial Advantages and Globalization Trends 2) Who is competitively advantaged changes overtime and in commodity markets is not a labor problem but a question of raw material as these are the key inputs that drive economics.
We have a renewed confidence in our process after doing a lot of thinking in the last few months and feel that “not happening yet” is only furthering the duration of the turn when it inevitably comes.
In current events on the tail end of the month and bleeding into today speculative digital coins extend losses, US Tech is in an interesting spot from conversations around the grow and returns on AI Capex, and Nvidia is under fire for questionable accounting tactics. What does all of this mean? Probably nothing. We have developed this uncomfortable belief that markets will continue to lever themselves and be bailed out by the Government until they physically can not do it anymore and something snaps. We do not relish that fact, and it will be painful for all involved. But when the President of the United States is openly talking about “keeping stocks at all time highs” it is obvious the fix is in. Meanwhile there is backroom rumblings of Powell being replaced and a US attack on Venezuela. It is a volatile time we live in but volatility is the friend of the prepared mind.
Content for December
December 5th Release -Yearning for Yield - Corporate Bond 2/10
What is Covered: This is part two of our ten-part series on constructing a dividend/yield focused portfolio. The portfolio is constructed of 5 equities and 5 corporate bonds. This particular issue will detail a corporate bond trading below par generating attractive, defensible yield that is long dated in maturity.
December 9th Release - Macro
Working Title: The Public Meltdown of Private Equity
What is Covered: Private Equity has been all the rage for my entire lifetime. Returns have been stellar, capital has flocked, and money was easy. What if Private Equity is not the same business it was 15-20 years ago? What are the implications for more leveraged on fully priced businesses with an incentive mismatch of marking to a model rather than the market? We dive into these questions and much more as we detail how Private Equity has become overextended with only one resolution in our minds: Pain.
December 16th Release - New Stock Research
Working Title: A Bet on Met: Comparing and Contrasting Investment Merits of Warrior Met Coal and Alpha Met
What is Covered: In this piece we will detail the investment case for Alpha and Warrior Met Coal. We will do a brief overview of both businesses and go over the Alpha Playbook - IE, buying back a ridiculous amount of stock and forcing a rerate as the capital markets are closed to all things coal. We will also go into Warrior Mets Blue creek Project and what they might do post the completion with the new cash generated.
December 19th Release - Yearning for Yield - Equity 3/10
What is Covered: This is part three of our ten-part series on constructing a dividend/yield focused portfolio. The portfolio is constructed of 5 equities and 5 corporate bonds. This particular issue will detail our second equity pick in the yield portfolio and without giving too much away we feel the combination of yield and balance sheet against a risk-free rate of roughly 4% is attractive.
December 23rd Release - Industry
Working Title: The Coming Decade of Imbalances 2026 - 2036
What is Covered: It is our core belief that inflationary pressures & monetary system shifts will be a persistent theme through the next decade and maybe longer. In this piece we will talk about where we think inflation will come from, why it will remain persistent, and how the monetary system needs gutted and what that means for stocks today, and what it has historically meant. While we will provide context on these themes and what does well on the back of these macro shifts, we will also give you the portfolio construction techniques we are using in house and for clients.
*Nothing we talked about in this piece should be taken as investment advice - everyone should do their own work. Views expressed are our own, investing involves risk including loss of principal*