On the Horizon

November 2025

October Recap

There was a lot of interesting news that came out in the month of October. The price of oil broke the $60 market again on the back of Trump promising $2 p/g gasoline prices and bullish production sentiment coming out of OPEC+.

For a myriad of reasons, we believe this current price action to be totally sentiment drive and divorced from economic and energetic realities. More on this in a later piece on oil.

The most interesting piece of news for us was the announcement of Occidental Petroleum listing their OxyChem business for sale. When the sale was announced and a buyer not yet named, our original hope was it would be Westlake or Olin Corp, simply for market rationalization purposes and further consolidation. We also thought it might be interesting for a foreign producer to purchase that business, further proving the North American industrial advantage that we are writing about later this month.

As it turns out, a familiar buyer, Berkshire Hathaway was the purchaser for an all-cash deal of $9.7B that was announced on October 2nd. It was very amusing for us to watch the market’s reaction to the note of Berkshires ownership. It has been broadly chalked up as a bail out by Buffet and Co. to help delever Oxy’s balance sheet from purchases of high-cost Permian acreage. Rather than asking why the greatest investor in the history of mankind may see value in such an acquisition, it was chalked up to a $6.5B debt reduction story for Oxy and that’s it.

We find this way of thinking quite entertaining and generally perplexing due to the fact that when Berkshire buys a stake in Ulta Beauty, United Health, Apple or Chubb, the stocks catch a bid, and it is seen as a signal of value - what is “Buffets basis” and can I go lower? It stands to reason then, that when Buffet and Co purchase one of the three largest Chlor-Alkali producers in North America that there may be a touch of signal in such an acquisition, no? The market says no but we say otherwise.

Berkshire Hathaway has not achieved its current track record by making tuck in acquisitions of poor businesses simply to bail out another investment they may have. While they have been a source of funding in times of crisis, they are not going to make a transaction such as this without merit, and we believe Berkshires acquisition of OxyChem is yet another tea leaf that says we are hunting in the right place.

As we will detail in full in the Olin Corp Thesis on November 18th, this is an industry that is ripe for out sized returns and Olin, we believe, presents the most attractive investment in the industry today. Olin is a better business that for the next decade will generate high returns on capital and enjoy growing demand and economic advantages after being orphaned since the GFC.

Earnings Coverage to Expect

October

Olin October 27th

Noble October 27th

LSB Industries October 29th

Transocean October 29th

Valaris October 30th

November

American Coastal Insurance November 4th

Navigator Gas November 4th

Tidewater November 5th

Borr Drilling November 5th

Intrepid Potash November 5th

Delek November 7th

Arcelor Mittal November 10th

Content for the Month

November 4th Release - Macro Commentary

Working Title: Houston, We Have a Problem

Subtitle: A Look Back at the 1970s and Eerie Similarities to Today’s Market

What is Covered: It cannot be overstated just how similar today’s market realities are to those of the 1970s. What is similar? Why does it matter? What industries stand to benefit? What industries will suffer? We lay it all out from politics to commodities with a focus on what it means for stocks and your portfolio returns.

November 11th Release - Industry Research

Working Title: Farming, Fragility and Finance: A Case for Agricultural Stocks

Subtitle: Unsustainable Crop Prices and Overly Optimistic Yields Present a Massive Opportunity

What is Covered: In this piece we will talk about fertilizer producers and the opportunity in the N & K in the NPK nutrient chain. Estimates by the USDA project record breaking figures and prices for Corn, Soybean, and many other agricultural products are simply unsustainable. We will look at USDA figures, Potash and Nitrogen Chemical producers, and talk about weather pattern cycles that are setting up to rival the dust bowl - driving demand for nutrients for crops as weather looks to be less supportive in the next decade.

November 18th Release - New Stock Research

Working Title: Chemicals & Consolidation: A Bull Case for Olin Corporation

Subtitle: After a Decade of Anemic GDP Growth, Over Supply, and Consolidation Olin Corporation is Poised to Outperform

What is Covered: Olin Corporation thesis - we will cover the what the business does, the history of the firm and the industry broadly, a valuation of the business, a review of its balance sheet, and much more!

November 25th Release - Macro Commentary

Working Title: The Next Industrial Revolution: North America’s Advantage

Subtitle: After a Decade of Poor Returns and Capital Starvation Energy Intensive Businesses in North America Are Positioned to Outperform

What is Covered: Globalization is not a binary phenomenon. It isnt happening or not happening, the form in which it happens simply changes over time, driven mostly by economic considerations. In this piece we dive into China’s evolution, North America’s advantage from low-cost natural gas, and what industries will earn outsized returns and are advantaged from the changing economic landscape.

Group Call(s)

Date: November 22nd 2025

Time: 1030AM Central / 11:30 EST

Topic: TBD

Guest: TBD