On The Horizon

September 2025

Q2 Recap

Earnings for Q2 have passed us and as we enter the fall, we are beginning to see signs of a rotation out of large cap tech. It has been subtle and unless you own the alternative asset classes that have been a beneficiary it may have even gone unnoticed.

Drill Baby Drill continues to be a better slogan than an actual call to action, the monetary system continues on its track toward a massive shake up via the Mara Lago Accords and the BRICS with the US dollar weakened against its foreign peer group by over 7% for the quarter and US 2 year bills declined 18bps to 3.71% with the 10 year up 2bps to 4.23%.

Finally, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq continue to grind higher and the party goes on in the mind of the marginal market participant, nearly every industry within the index performed well and generated positive returns in the index. Anyone want to take a guess on the laggard for Q2? You guessed it. Energy.

With that brief recap out of the way, let’s take a look at our content for the month of September!

Macro Market Commentary

We have a number of interesting topics for the month of September.

1. Drill Baby Drill: The America Last Approach (working title) September 9th, 2025

We believe the current administration is in the process of confronting the problem of under investment in oil production growth and US Shale decline. As a result, Trump has branched out from the American centric approach to energy dominance and is looking to the Saudis and Russia. Will this be a successful venture, where do those markets stand in their supply base and what could it mean for oil prices in the next decade?

2. China Ignored Recovery: 5-Years of Recession Has the Market Fading an Economic Resurgence (working title) September 23rd, 2025

For 5 years China has been in a period of recession. COVID-19 lock downs, a Housing Depression, Government intervention in Tech Stocks, Geopolitical uncertainty, have led the market to believe this is the current state of things in China. In this piece we will explore China’s dumping of basic materials, what a campaign of Quantitative Easing (QE) means for China and how it differs from the US, and what industries stand to benefit from those dynamics. Finally, we talk about why the recession in the US is overblown as a drag on Industrial/Commodity based businesses.

New Stock Research

Borr Drilling (BORR) Expected Release Date: September 16th, 2025

Maintenace Research

I will provide a commentary on Subsea7 + Sapiem’s recent announcement of merger into Sapiem7. We will discuss the structure of the deal, what it means broadly for both businesses, and any/all read throughs to what it might mean for the value chain of offshore projects and energy services broadly. - Expected Release Date: September 30th, 2025

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