While I still plan to provide a long form thesis on Sable Offshore, including relevant historical details dating back to the Celeron Agreement, I wanted to get this note out on what just transpired in California State Court. Our base case for this investment, especially following two back-to-back losses on procedure in state court (Anderle Decision & Geck) was that Sable was going to come online at some point but it was increasingly likely the only way to get passed the legal minefield in California was to appeal and win in Federal Court. In a shocking turn of events, I am happy to say it appears that I was wrong. Before I dive into the tentative, let’s go over a bit of background to set the table for what was one of Sables most important legal victories since forcing Santa Barbra County to settle on a pipeline safety dispute.
Background
Due to the complex nature, and sheer volume of litigation Sable has undergone in the last few years, I thought it prudent to give you a look at the legal landscape and give you specifics on what case I am referring to and the scope of what it is covering. The case in question is overseen by Judge Donna Geck, case number 25CV02247 and is in reference to a Temporary Restraing Order (TRO) issued against Sable Offshore on June 3th, 2025 that, on July 18th, 2025 (tentative released July 17th) would be heard to determine if the TRO would turn into a Preliminary Injunction (PI) which is typically longer in duration and specific to what is allowable/not allowable.