Sable Offshore Restart Plan & OS&T Valuation
OSFM Denies Sables Restart Plan on a Clunky, Weak Narrative + Valuation of the OS&T Route
Introduction
Last week the Office of State Fire Marshal identified deficiencies in Sable’s restart plan for pipelines 324 & 325, citing repair and remediation work not completed that was apparently mandated by OSFM as a condition of restart.
A popular narrative surrounding this is that Sable was lying about completing repair work and misrepresenting the work done in its May 2025 8K. Not only was work not completed but any repair work that remains cannot be completed due to Anderle’s decision in the CCC case. This is a false narrative created by a misunderstanding of Sable’s situation broadly by once bulls now jaded who sold too early and now must justify taking such a painful loss.
As has been the case since this entire saga began, nuance is required and the truth takes some digging and intendent thought. First, Sable did not lie about completing repair work and did the work required under the conditions of restart in the federal consent decree. Second, the work the OSFM is referring to, that was its basis for denial, is work mandated not to be completed until after Sable is fully operational by the OSFM itself.
Anyone who took time to read the rationale for the decision can see it is clunky and easily refuted as Sable’s response to the OSFM so eloquently proved. The truth of the matter is Sable has been in constant contact with the OSFM as they have been completing repair work and has multiple interactions with state officials confirming Sable’s understanding of what work must be completed prior to a restart.
It is also interesting how the OSFM decided to deny - if, as many have claimed OSFM is hindered in making a decision by the CCC case why would they not just cite that? It would be as simple as responding to the FOIA request by saying we are waiting for other disputes to clear up before making a determination.
That is the route OSFM and Newsom would have presumably gone down if they wanted to kill the pipeline for certain. Instead, this leaves the door open for an easy reversal of the OSFM decision once Newsom has attempted to extract full value for whatever horse trade he is trying to conjure up. In the meantime, while the state is battling an energy collapse and playing politics with Sable’s pipeline, the company remains busy moving forward daily with the OS&T production route and we expect news on progress there in the coming weeks.
In this piece we will go through the OSFM decision, Sable’s response and highlight some points of reference and give you our take on what we think is truly going on.
Letter from OSFM