Tidewater Thesis Clarity

Drilling Down on What Actually Matters in the Tidewater Investment Case

Introduction

Conviction is not something you gain and have it is built and then earned. Conviction on an investment idea comes from understanding the critical drivers of the investment case that over shadow short term market fluctuations. Cyclical businesses in recovery do not do so in a straight line hence Tidewaters run from $120 back to $38 in a matter of months while fundamentals remained strong. While we can afford to wait for the Tidewater thirty cent dollar to turn into a dollar, we are not sure that it will take that long to manifest. Twelve-twenty four month lags from Final Investment Decisions (FID) point to increased activity in the back half of this year and into 2027.

In addition, this is not a story we believe ends simply at replacement cost economics. We think that Tidewater and the OSV supply base will remain structurally advantaged in terms of day rate/utilization for a long time to come. While free cash flow and earnings are not a linear story, cumulatively we think they will far exceed to current market cap of the firm and more importantly, this management team will do interesting things with the cash to create more value.

Tidewater 1-Pager